SUDDEN IONOSPHERIC DISTURBANCE: Today around 1320 UT, a wave of ionization swept through the high atmosphere over Europe after sunspot AR1389 unleashed another M2-class solar flare. "There was a very clear sudden ionospheric disturbance on my VLF radio instruments," reports Rob Stammes, who sends these data from the Polar Light Center in Lofoten, Norway:
"The sun is below the horizon where we are located north of the Arctic Circle," says Stammes. "This event shows we still have some contact with the sun."
NOAA forecasters estimate a 40% chance of more M-flares during the next 24 hours. There is also a 5% chance of X-flares. Solar flare alerts: text, voice.
from solarham.com
UPDATE: The second M-Class flare of the day took place around Sunspot 1389 at 16:26 UTC. It measured M1.5 at its peak 
M2.4 Solar Flare / Solar Update :
2011 is coming to an end with Sunspot 1389 continuing to produce solar flares. Solar activity was fairly low during the latter part of Friday, however an M2.4 s/f was detected this morning at 13:15 UTC. This event also produced a short lived 10cm Radio Burst (TenFlare). More information to follow, should any Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) be accompanied with this event. All other visible regions are currently stable .
SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2011 Dec 31 1312 UTC
Maximum Time: 2011 Dec 31 1313 UTC
End Time: 2011 Dec 31 1313 UTC
Duration: 1 minutes
Peak Flux: 150 sfu
Wondering what a TenFlare is?: A tenflare is associated with optical and x-ray flares. Solar flares emit radiation over a very wide range of frequencies. One of the more significant frequencies observed is the 10.7 cm wavelength band (2695 MHz). When a solar flare erupts, "noise" from the flare is received over this very wide range of frequencies. When the noise received on the 10.7 cm wavelength band surpasses 100% of the background noise level during a solar flare, a Tenflare is said to be in progress. The more intense solar flares are associated with tenflares. Almost all major flares are associated with tenflares. Generally, the greater the intensity of the burst of noise observed at the 10.7 cm wavelength band, the more significant the flare is said to be. The duration of the tenflare can also be used to determine the severity of the flare.
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Solar wind
speed: 349.8 km/sec
density: 4.8 protons/cm3
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at 1726 UT
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X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: M2 1315 UT Dec31
24-hr: M2 1315 UT Dec31
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 1700 UT
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Daily Sun: 31 Dec 11
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Sunspot 1389 poses a continued threat for M-class solar flares. Credit: SDO/HMI
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Sunspot number: 104
What is the sunspot number?
Updated 30 Dec 2011
Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 0 days
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
Since 2004: 821 days
Typical Solar Min: 486 days
Updated 30 Dec 2011
The Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 141 sfu
explanation | more data
Updated 30 Dec 2011
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Current Auroral Oval:
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Switch to: Europe, USA, New Zealand, Antarctica
Credit: NOAA/POES
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Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 0 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 1 quiet
explanation | more data
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Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 4.4 nT
Bz: 1.2 nT south
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at 1727 UT
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Coronal Holes: 31 Dec 11
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Solar wind flowing from this coronal hole will buffet Earth's magnetic field from now until ~Jan. 2. Credit: SDO/AIA.
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| SPACE WEATHER NOAA Forecasts |
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Updated at: 2011 Dec 30 2200 UTC
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FLARE
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0-24 hr
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24-48 hr
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CLASS M
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40 %
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40 %
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CLASS X
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05 %
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05 %
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Geomagnetic Storms:
Probabilities for significant disturbances in Earth's magnetic field are given for three activity levels: active, minor storm, severe storm
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Updated at: 2011 Dec 30 2200 UTC
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Mid-latitudes
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0-24 hr
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24-48 hr
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ACTIVE
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05 %
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10 %
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MINOR
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01 %
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05 %
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SEVERE
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01 %
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01 %
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High latitudes
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0-24 hr
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24-48 hr
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ACTIVE
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15 %
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15 %
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MINOR
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10 %
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15 %
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SEVERE
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05 %
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15 %
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